At present, in the case of no other good negative effects, hebei and other places became hong kong-listed epidemic situation of heilongjiang province’s main influence factors In my opinion, under disturbances in the outbreak, hong kong-listed before the Spring Festival is likely to enter the off-season in advance.

On the one hand, the outbreak of the iron and steel industry more concentrated in the circulation and the influence of the terminal link, the impact on the production process is relatively small For reasons of epidemic prevention and control, hebei and other places project shutdown by successively, the demand fall further, especially represented by rebar construction steel drop is more obvious, according to industry groups in the first week of January this year (January January 4 ~ 8), construction steel weeks average daily volume of 178000 tons And as of January 21, construction steel weeks average daily trading volume has dropped to 111000 tons Thus, under the disturbance of the outbreak, the market demand more and more weak, more robust off-season effect.

On the other hand, this had winter price is on the high side From the current more steel mills had winter of policies, rebar prices generally limit is controlled in 4050 yuan/ton, lower than the current market price 200 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/tonWith the usual 3500 yuan/ton ~ 3800 yuan/ton had winter, compared with the current price to attract traders is not big Especially in the area under the condition of epidemic situation still has certain uncertainty, traders had winter enthusiasm obviously low this year The author predicts that such had winter this year will be smaller than usual, demand is difficult to rebound sharply before the Spring Festival, hong kong-listed or will directly into marketable in the off-season.

In addition, the hong kong-listed another signal in advance into the off-season is futures pull function on the spot price of weakeningIn the beginning of the outbreak, the futures market funds from rebar futures jumped out at maturity into iron ore, coke and other raw materials market, and a strong pull up, once a rebound in its driven market.

However, the current futures market weakness, also gradually entered the shock adjustment cycle, late on the spot market is difficult to form strong support, as steel mills lock price policy, effective operation of the spot market space will be further compressed, steel prices will go into more shocks to adjust priceHowever, need to notice is that the current 62% grade iron ore prices have 10 consecutive stay above $170 / ton, coke prices also have finished 14th round up, the high cost of steel price support effect is still in the steel mills in order to pass on the cost pressure, large probability will be an increase in the price of steel factory The author thinks that, even into the off-season, the depth of the steel price adjustment of space also is not big