Changes in supply and demand promote a surge in coal coke
On August 19, the trend of black products diverged. Iron ore fell by more than 7%, rebar fell by more than 3%, and coking coal and coke rose by more than 3%. Interviewees believe that the current coal mine starts to recover less than expected, and the downstream demand is strong, leading to a sharp rise in coal coke.
According to Dou Hongzhen, a senior analyst at Yide Futures, due to the impact of previous coal mine accidents, concentrated coal production cuts, and “dual-carbon” emission control shutdowns, since July, coal washing plants have started to recover slowly, and the supply of coking coal has fallen, and the shortage of coking coal has intensified in late July. . Statistics show that the current sample operating rate of domestic coal washing plants is 69.86%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.43 percentage points. At the same time, due to the repeated epidemics in Mongolia and China-Australia relations, the year-on-year decline in coking coal imports has also been serious. Among them, the recent epidemic situation in Mongolia is severe, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance rate is at a low level. In August, 180 vehicles were cleared daily, which was a significant drop from the level of 800 vehicles in the same period last year. Australian coal is still not allowed to declare, and the stock of imported coking coal at coastal ports is 4.04 million tons, which is 1.03 million tons lower than in July.
According to a reporter from the Futures Daily, the price of coke has risen, and the raw material inventory of downstream companies is at a low level. The enthusiasm for purchasing coking coal is strong. Due to the tight supply of coking coal, the coking coal inventory of downstream companies continues to decline. At present, the total coking coal inventory of 100 independent coking companies across the country is about 6.93 million tons, which is a decrease of 860,000 tons from July, a drop of more than 11% in one month.
The sharp rise in the price of coking coal continued to squeeze the profits of coking companies. Last week, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking companies in the country was 217 yuan, a record low in the past year. Coking companies in some areas have reached the brink of loss, and some Shanxi coke companies have limited their production by about 15%. . “At the end of July, the coal supply gap in northwestern China and other places widened, and the price of coking coal rose further, causing local coking companies to increase their production restrictions. This phenomenon also appeared in Shanxi and other places.” Dou Hongzhen said that at the end of July, coking companies started the first round of increases. The coal price subsequently rose for three consecutive rounds due to the rapid increase in coal prices. As of August 18, the cumulative price of coke has increased by 480 yuan/ton.
Analysts said that due to the continuous increase in raw coal prices and difficulties in purchasing, the current operating load of coking companies in some areas has dropped significantly, coke supply continues to shrink, coking companies have smooth delivery of goods, and there is almost no inventory in the factory.
The reporter noticed that although the 2109 coking coal futures contract reached a new high, the price was discounted to the spot, and the increase was lower than that of the spot.
As of August 19, the ex-factory price of Shanxi-produced 1.3% medium-sulfur coke clean coal rose to 2,480 yuan/ton, a record high. The equivalent of domestic futures standard products was 2,887 yuan/ton, and the month-to-date increase was 25.78%. In the same period, the 2109 coking coal futures contract rose from 2268.5 yuan/ton to 2653.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.97%.
Affected by the transmission of coking coal, since August, the price of coke spot factories has risen four rounds, and the port trade price has risen by 380 yuan/ton. As of August 19, the spot price of quasi-level metallurgical coke trade in Rizhao Port rose from 2,770 yuan/ton to 3,150 yuan/ton, which was converted into domestic futures standard products from 2,990 yuan/ton to 3389 yuan/ton. In the same period, the 2109 coke futures contract rose from 2928 yuan/ton to 3379 yuan/ton, and the basis changed from a futures discount of 62 yuan/ton to a discount of 10 yuan/ton.