On October 12, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest issue of the World Economic Outlook Report (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”). The IMF pointed out in the “Report” that the economic growth rate for the whole year of 2021 is expected to be 5.9%, and the growth rate is 0.1 percentage points lower than the July forecast. The IMF believes that although global economic development continues to recover, the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on economic development is more lasting. The rapid spread of the delta strain has exacerbated the uncertainty of the outlook for the epidemic, slowing employment growth, increasing inflation, food security, and climate Issues such as changes have brought many challenges to various economies.
The “Report” predicts that the global economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be 4.5% (different economies vary). In 2021, the economies of advanced economies will grow by 5.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the July forecast; the economies of emerging markets and developing economies will grow by 6.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the July forecast. Among the world’s major economies, the growth rate of economic development is 8.0% in China, 6.0% in the United States, 2.4% in Japan, 3.1% in Germany, 6.8% in the United Kingdom, 9.5% in India, and 6.3% in France. The “Report” predicts that the global economy is expected to grow by 4.9% in 2022, which is the same as the July forecast.
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath (Gita Gopinath) said that due to factors such as differences in vaccine availability and policy support, the economic development prospects of various economies have diverged, which is the main problem facing the global economic recovery. Due to the interruption of key links in the global supply chain and the interruption time is longer than expected, the inflation situation in many economies is severe, leading to increased risks for economic recovery and greater difficulty in policy response.