Looking back on 2021, coal-related varieties – thermal coal, coking coal, and coke futures prices have experienced a rare collective surge and decline, which has become the focus of the commodity market. Among them, in the first half of 2021, the price of coke futures fluctuated in a broad trend for many times, and in the second half of the year, thermal coal became the main variety driving the trend of the coal market, driving the prices of coking coal and coke futures to fluctuate greatly. In terms of overall price performance, coking coal has the largest price increase among the three varieties. As of December 29, 2021, the main contract price of coking coal has increased by nearly 34.73% throughout the year, and the price of coke and thermal coal has increased by 3.49% and 2.34% respectively. %.
From the perspective of driving factors, in the first half of 2021, the proposed task of reducing crude steel production across the country has led to a significant increase in the expectation that the demand for coal coke will weaken in the market. However, from the actual situation, except for steel mills in Hebei Province to increase production restrictions and crude steel production to decline, other provinces have not implemented reduction plans. In the first half of 2021, the overall crude steel output increased rather than decreased, and the demand for coking coal performed well. The superposition of Shanxi Province, the main producer of coal and coke, carried out environmental inspection work, and the supply side experienced a phased decline. ) futures prices fluctuated widely. In the second half of 2021, local steel mills have successively implemented crude steel production reduction policies, and the demand for raw materials has weakened. Under the influence of rising costs, the prices of coking coal and coke further followed the rise. Under the action of a series of policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices, starting from late October 2021, the prices of three types of coal (thermal coal, coking coal, and coke) will gradually return to a reasonable range.
In 2020, the coking industry accelerated the process of eliminating outdated production capacity, with a net withdrawal of about 22 million tons of coking production capacity throughout the year. In 2021, the coking capacity will mainly be net new additions. According to statistics, 25.36 million tons of coking production capacity will be eliminated in 2021, with an increase of 50.49 million tons and a net increase of 25.13 million tons. However, although coking production capacity is gradually replenished, coke production will show a negative year-on-year growth in 2021. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, coke production in the first 11 months of 2021 was 428.39 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, mainly due to the continuous decline in coking capacity utilization. The survey data shows that in 2021, the coking capacity utilization rate of the whole sample will drop from 90% at the beginning of the year to 70% at the end of the year. In 2021, the main coking production area will face multiple environmental inspections, the overall environmental protection policy will become stricter, the energy consumption dual control policy will be increased in the second half of the year, the reduction process of downstream crude steel production will be accelerated, and the policy pressure will superimpose the drop in demand, resulting in a negative year-on-year growth in coke production.
In 2022, my country’s coking production capacity will still have a certain net increase. It is estimated that 53.73 million tons of coking production capacity will be eliminated in 2022, with an increase of 71.33 million tons and a net increase of 17.6 million tons. From the perspective of profit, the profit per ton of coke in the first half of 2021 is 727 yuan, but in the second half of the year, with the rise of coking costs, the profit per ton of coke will drop to 243 yuan, and the instant profit per ton of coke will be about 100 yuan at the end of the year. With the overall downward movement of raw coal prices, the profit per ton of coke is expected to recover in 2022, which is conducive to the recovery of coke supply. On the whole, it is expected that coke supply may increase steadily in 2022, but limited by the expectation of flat control of crude steel output, the growth space of coke supply is limited.
In terms of demand, the overall demand for coke in 2021 will show a trend of strong front and back weakness. In the first half of 2021, the reduction task of crude steel production in most regions has not been effectively implemented, and the output of crude steel and pig iron has increased significantly, driving the demand for coke to strengthen; Production continued to decline, resulting in weaker coke demand. According to the survey data, the average daily production of molten iron of 247 sample steel plants in the country is 2.28 million tons, of which the average daily production of molten iron in the first half of 2021 is 2.395 million tons, and the average daily production of molten iron in the second half of the year is 2.165 million tons, which has dropped to 2.165 million tons by the end of the year. About 2 million tons. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first 11 months of 2021, the cumulative output of crude steel and pig iron has experienced a year-on-year negative growth.
On October 13, 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Notice on Carrying out the Shifted Peak Production of the Iron and Steel Industry in the Heating Season in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas in 2021-2022″, from January 1, 2022 to March 15, 2022, “2 The staggered production ratio of +26″ urban steel enterprises shall not be lower than 30% of the crude steel output in the same period of the previous year. Based on this ratio, the average monthly output of crude steel in the first quarter of “2+26″ cities in 2022 is equivalent to that in November 2021, which means that the demand for coke in these cities has limited room for recovery in the first quarter of 2022, and the demand will increase. Or performance in Q2 and beyond. For other provinces, especially the southern region, due to the absence of further policy constraints, the increase in production of steel mills is expected to be stronger than that in the northern region, which is positive for coke demand. On the whole, it is expected that under the background of the “dual carbon” policy, the crude steel output reduction policy will still be implemented, and the coke demand will not be supported strongly.
In terms of inventory, due to the strong demand for coke in the first half of 2021, while the supply has experienced a phased decline, the supply and demand in the second half of the year will fall at the same time, and the coke inventory will generally show a trend of destocking. low level. In 2022, considering that the coke supply is stable and increasing, the demand may continue to be controlled, and the supply and demand relationship may turn loose, there is a certain risk of accumulation of coke.
On the whole, coke supply and demand will be booming in the first half of 2021, and both supply and demand will be weak in the second half of the year. The overall supply and demand relationship will be in a tight balance pattern, inventory will continue to be digested, and the overall performance of coke prices will be strong driven by costs. In 2022, with the successive release of new production capacity and the recovery of profit per ton of coke, coke supply may increase steadily. On the demand side, the staggered production policy during the heating season in the first quarter will still suppress the demand for coke, and it is expected to continue to pick up in the second quarter and beyond. Under the constraints of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the price drive of coking coal and coke will return to its own fundamentals and the ferrous metal industry chain. Judging from the expectation of periodic changes in coke supply and demand, it is expected that coke prices may fluctuate weakly in 2022. , the medium and long-term price focus may move down.